Exit poll shows liberal mayor and conservative historian lead Poland presidential election

An exit poll shows that the liberal Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski and a conservative historian, Karol Nawrocki, are the front-runners in a presidential election in Poland

WARSAW, Poland (AP) — Liberal Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski and a conservative historian, Karol Nawrocki, are the front-runners in a presidential election in Poland on Sunday, an exit poll shows. They will face off in a second round in two weeks.

The poll by the Ipsos institute shows Trzaskowski with an estimated 30.8% of the votes and Nawrocki 29.1%.

Trzaskowski is a liberal allied with Prime Minister Donald Tusk, and Nawrocki is a conservative historian with no prior political experience who was backed by the national conservative Law and Justice party.

There are 13 candidates in all. To win, a candidate needs 50%. Since no candidate achieved that, a second round must be be held June 1.

It was a worse showing for Trzaskowski than opinion polls in recent weeks had predicted, and it appeared overall to be a good evening for forces on the right. Nawrocki appeared to do better than opinion polls had predicted, even though he faced allegations of obtaining an apartment from an elderly man in a dishonest manner — something he denies.

Addressing his supporters, Nawrocki hailed his result, noting that there was just a “cosmetic difference” between himself, a political newcomer, and Trzaskowski, long viewed as the front-runner.

“I would like to thank the millions of Poles who voted for me,” he said during an election night event in Gdansk. “The millions of Poles who did not succumb to the pressure of propaganda, falsehood, lies.”

A far-right candidate, Sławomir Mentzen was projected to garner 15.4%, while an extreme right-wing candidate, Grzegorz Braun, was predicted to win 6.2%, according to the exit poll.

Exit polls have a small margin of error and the official vote count could differ somewhat, but they show that the terrain ahead could be harder than expected for Trzaskowski. Final results are expected on Monday or Tuesday.

In a speech to his supporters, Trzaskowski said he knew the race would be hard and acknowledged that there is a lot of work ahead. He reached out to the voters of other candidates, appealing for their votes in the second round.

He described Nawrocki as someone who is “radical and seeks conflict" and promised to be a constructive president who would reduce tensions in the deeply divided nation.

The election comes at a time of heightened security concerns stemming from the war in neighboring Ukraine and growing worry that the U.S. commitment to Europe's security could be weakening under President Donald Trump.

Polish authorities have reported foreign attempts at interference during the campaign, including denial-of-service attacks targeting parties in Tusk's coalition on Friday and allegations by a state research institute that political ads on Facebook were funded from abroad.

Although Poland’s prime minister and parliament hold primary authority over domestic policy, the presidency carries substantial power. The president serves as commander of the armed forces, plays a role in foreign and security policy, and can veto legislation.

The conservative outgoing president, Andrzej Duda, has repeatedly used that power over more than the past year to hamper Tusk’s agenda.

A Trzaskowski victory could be expected to end such a standoff. He has pledged to support reforms to the courts and public media, both of which critics say were politicized under Law and Justice. Tusk's opponents say he has also politicized public media.

Monika Laskowska-Dzierbicka, a 36-year-old clinical psychology, voted in Warsaw for Trzaskowski. She said she feels “he would be able to resolve disputes, that he would not divide Poles."

"Rafał Trzaskowski is a competent person, he knows languages, so he will try to get along with everyone," she said.

Nawrocki, who leads a state historical institute, has positioned himself as a defender of conservative values and national sovereignty.

At the same Warsaw polling station, a Nawrocki supporter, Irena Kuczyńska, 79, said she viewed Nawrocki as someone who embodies traditional Polish values. “From the old days of my family, God, Honor and Fatherland are the most important. And that’s why I’m with Mr. Nawrocki."

Voter cast their ballots polling stations opened in the first round of Poland's presidential elections in Warsaw, on Sunday, May 18, 2025. (AP Photo/Czarek Sokolowski)

Credit: AP

icon to expand image

Credit: AP

This combination of photos shows Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski, left, in Warsaw, Poland, on March 14, 2022 and Karol Nawrocki in Szeligi near Warsaw, Poland, on March 2, 2025. (AP Photo/Czarek Sokolowski, File)

Credit: AP

icon to expand image

Credit: AP

Voters cast their ballots polling stations opened in the first round of Poland's presidential elections in Warsaw, on Sunday, May 18, 2025. (AP Photo/Czarek Sokolowski)

Credit: AP

icon to expand image

Credit: AP

Voters cast their ballots polling stations opened in the first round of Poland's presidential elections in Lomianki, near Warsaw, on Sunday, May 18, 2025. (AP Photo/Czarek Sokolowski)

Credit: AP

icon to expand image

Credit: AP

Karol Nawrocki, left, a non-partisan Presidential candidate supported by the right wing Law and Justice Party casting his vote with his family; wife Marta Nawrocka, center, and daughter Katarzyna, son Antonii , right, during the presidential election in Gdansk, Poland on Sunday, May 18, 2025. (AP Photo/Wojciech Strozyk)

Credit: AP

icon to expand image

Credit: AP